AGLINK-COSIMO is a recursive-dynamic, partial equilibrium, supply demand model of world agriculture, developed by the OECD Secretariat in close co-operation with member countries and certain non member economies. The model covers annual supply, demand and prices for the main agricultural commodities produced, consumed and traded in each of the regions it covers. AGLINK has been developed on the basis of existing country models and thus the model specification reflects the views of the participating countries. Collaborative discussions between the OECD Secretariat and the Commodities and Trade Division of the FAO (Food and Agricultural Organisation), starting in 2004, resulted in a more detailed representation of developing countries and regions within the FAO’s COSIMO (COmmodity SImulation MOdel).
In its current version, AGLINK-COSIMO covers 39 agricultural primary and processed commodities and 52 countries and regions. Individual country modules exist for each of the regions. These modules are first calibrated on initial baseline projections, derived from annual questionnaires to the respective country. Second, the country modules are merged to form the entire AGLINK-COSIMO model. The model is then solved simultaneously and adjusted where needed to generate a commodity baseline. Individual country models can be solved in stand-alone mode by considering all links to the world market (in particular world market prices) as exogenous. The COSIMO initial projections are a combination of views of the FAO market analysts and model driven projections, as no questionnaires are distributed for those countries.
The model is used mainly to derive the OECD-FAO agricultural outlook.
OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) (2009): OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009-2018. OECD/FAO, Paris/Rome.
It is also used to derive the outlook on the European agricultural markets prepared and published by DG AGRI in collaboration with IPTS. The latest outlook can be found in:
It has been lately applied to assess biofuel policies:
OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) (2008): Biofuel support policies: An economic Assessment. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris.
As well as GMOs asynchronous approval:
A thorough documentation can be found in:
OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) (2006): Documentation of the AGLINK Model. Working Party on Agricultural Policies and Markets, AGR-CA-APM(2006)16/FINAL. Directorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, Committee for Agriculture, OECD, Paris.
Currently the model is used by ITPS in collaboration with DG AGRI on ad-hoc policy analysis support.