Analysis of the European Food Industry Sector
The study seeks to analyse the developments in the food industry sector in relation to the farm sector and to assess the impacts of investments on structure and trade with a quantitative modelling approach.
Specifically, the study will:
create a comprehensive database with appropriate indicators of the food industry in the EU25;
provide an in-depth analysis of the food industry sector in the EU25, identifying the driving factors of the development of the food industry sector and assessing the impacts on production, structure, farmers, and trade;
elaborate a methodological approach to calculate scenarios of development paths of the food industry sector, taking into account as a driving factor in particular the investments;
carry out possible development paths of the food industry sector, its impacts on the farm sector, and to draw appropriate policy recommendations.
The quantitative analysis will be based on a CGE model including a disaggregated EU-15, the NMS from Central and Eastern Europe as individual countries and the candidate countries (Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey) and for major non-European countries of the EU trading. The principle data base for this model (Input-Output data, factor demand etc.) will be the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) data base. The base model structure will be built on the model structure outlined in McDonald, Robinson and Thierfelder (2005). This CGE model is a member of the class of CGE models which are descended from a CGE model described by Dervis et al. (1982). The model will be implemented by using the GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) software. For this study the CGE by McDonald, Robinson and Thierfelder (2005) will be extended to analyse the impact outward and inward FDI in the enlarged European Union on the agricultural and food processing industries.
Analysis of the European Food Industry
Confederation of the Food and Drink Industries of the EU