Analysis of an accession of Croatia, Turkey and other (potential) candidate countries to the EU
The objective of this research line is to use agricultural sector models to quantify and analyse the consequences for the agricultural sector of a potential accession to the EU.
One of the modelling tools to analyse European agriculture and the CAP is the AGMEMOD (AGricultural MEmber states MODelling) model. The AGMEMOD model covers all EU Member States and has been frequently updated to incorporate also candidates or potential candidates to EU accession. Although Turkey belongs to the candidates, it has not been incorporated into the AGMEMOD model yet. The status of a Candidate Country was granted to Turkey by the Helsinki European Council of December 1999 and formal accession negotiations with Turkey were opened in October 2005. On the day of accession Turkey adopts the acquis communautaire, including the CAP as it stands at that time. Expected Turkey accession to the EU and adoption of the CAP will influence domestic as well as the EU agricultural commodity markets.
The CAPSIM (Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation) is a partial equilibrium model focusing on the agricultural sector with exogenous inputs of macroeconomic variables. It is comparatively static and it relies on calibration techniques and a rigorous microeconomic framework for behavioural functions rather than on a full econometric estimation. In different AGRITRADE projects the CAPSIM model was extended to EU accession candidate countries, and its modelling tools for CAP analysis were further developed. In terms of country coverage the database now covers the EU-27, Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, as well as other Western Balkan countries, and Turkey. Within AGRITRADE projects the CAPSIM model has been applied to a set of different policy scenarios (i.e. on the dairy market policy reform and Western Balkan accession).
Potential Impacts on Agricultural Commodity Markets of an EU enlargement to Turkey
The Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) Model: Dairy Reform and Western Balkan Countries Accession Scenarios