Economic Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Agriculture
The AGRITRADE Action will be able to investigate two types of policy impact analysis (both focusing on the short to medium term):
- Impact analysis of changes in current price and income polices on agriculture's GHG emissions (i.e. CC-auditing of price and income policies).
- Impact analysis of explicit GHG mitigation policies on GHG emissions as well as on the usual range of policy-sensitive variables like production levels, prices, farm incomes etc (i.e. impacts of GHG mitigation policies).
The project enables the AGRITRADE Action to deliver a CC-auditing of price and income policies as well as an impact analysis of GHG mitigation policies.
The AGRITRADE Action is initiating a quantitative analysis of the regional economic impacts linked to the mitigation of GHG and ammonia emissions in the agricultural sector. Specific emphasis is put on emissions from livestock systems, however in performing a LCA, the analysis shall be able to address all emission sources from agriculture. For the analysis the CAPRI model is proposed, as an agricultural sector model able to perform quantitative analysis at regional level. The CAPRI model covers consistently nutrient flows between the most important agricultural activities in the EU27, has a highly disaggregated representation of livestock systems, includes feeding activities as an important part of livestock emissions from a life cycle perspective, and allows for the analysis of trade flows for agricultural commodities world wide. The specific objectives of the study are the following:
When these objectives have been fulfilled, the resulting model will allow the estimation of the GHG emissions resulting from any simulated policy change, whether or not its purpose is that of GHG mitigation. Hence, this will permit a GHG emission analysis to be performed as part of the standard ex ante analysis of any proposed change in the Common Agricultural Policy.
- To adapt an agricultural sector model to perform a Life Cycle Analysis of GHG emissions from agriculture, in particular livestock systems, at regional level within the EU27;
- To extend the analysis to cover trade-related agricultural emissions from livestock systems in other regions of the world, to account for emission leakage from European domestic mitigation policies as a result of changing trade balances (i.e. higher emissions than domestically accounted for, due to higher imports and/or lower exports of agricultural commodities);
- To provide and discuss baseline projections and GHG emission abatement scenarios for the EU27 in year 2020, stressing the most relevant agricultural emission sources;
- To construct and analyse counterfactual scenarios (i.e. to be compared with the baseline projections) able to quantify the effects of different emission abatement policy instruments on GHG emissions from European agriculture and their related costs, taking into account the latest negotiations on climate change.
Evaluation of the livestock sector's contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions.