Modelling the effects of the CAP on farm structural change
The objective of this project is to measure the effects of the CAP on farm structural change at farm level using the FSS (Farm Structural Survey) and FADN (Farm Accountancy Data Network) databases.
Although many definitions of structural change has been identified in the literature (farm survival and growth, labour allocation, specialization,…) for the purpose of this study structural change is defined as a change in productive orientation and economic size.
The following task will be undertaken:
1) develop a prototype analytical tool:
- estimate the farm structural change effect of the CAP: Ex-post analysis;
- make simulations related to different policy scenarios: Ex-ante analysis based on the CAPRI-Farm Type model;
2) test this analytical tool in two NUTS2 regions.
The ex-post analysis will be based on continuous and discrete (Markov transition probabilities) econometric approach. The transition probabilities estimated from FSS and FADN will be compared in order to analyze the effect of using a sample (FADN) instead of the complete survey of farmers (FSS). In addition, relevant determinants will be tested in order to explain the structural change observed.
In the ex-ante analysis the Farm Type (FT) layer of the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact (CAPRI) Modelling System will be used. Currently, the CAPRI-FT baseline is based on the NUTS2 regions baseline and does not incorporate structural change. Structural change (number of farms in each FT) will be incorporated via trends and or Markov transition probabilities in the FT baseline. Different policy scenarios will be analyzed.
JRC Technical Report (December 2012).
Study on the Development of a Regionalised EU-wide Operational Model to Assess the Impact of Current Common Agricultural Policy on Farming Sustainability:
Sergio Gomez y Paloma