Development of a Regionalised EU-wide Operational Model to Assess the Impact of Current Common Agricultural Policy on Farming Sustainability
The main objective of this study is to develop a regionalised operational tool to support the assessment of the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy on farm sustainability. This assessment puts emphasis on the socio-economic (gross margins, premiums, costs) and environmental (fertiliser surpluses, greenhouse emissions) indicators as dimensions of sustainability. The agricultural sector model Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact (CAPRI) has been chosen to be further developed incorporating regionally specific farm typology. The selection of the CAPRI model for this exercise, a model already in use at DG AGRI, ensures higher compatibility of farm level modelling with the current quantitative instruments at the Commission.
The approach consists in further breaking down NUTS II regions of the CAPRI model in up to 10 typical farms that then become the optimisation units of the CAPRI supply module. This breakdown to typical farms we call the 'farm type layer' of CAPRI, and the model comprising the farm type layer by the acronym CAPRI-FARM.
The CAPRI model is a global agricultural sector model covering EU-27 and Norway, designed to assess the regional and aggregate impacts of the CAP and trade policies on production, income, markets, trade, and the environment. CAPRI is a comparative static model that covers about 50 agricultural primary and processed products for the EU. The whole system is subdivided in four parts: COCO as the main database at Member State level; CAPREG, as the regional database; CAPTRD, as the trend tool for baseline simulation; and CAPMOD, which is the simulation tool. All these models are run and results reported by the CAPRI exploitation tool.
CAPMOD is made out of two major modules: (i) the supply module, which consists of a set of independent non-linear programming models covering about 250 regions (NUTS II level), and (ii) the market module, a spatial, global multi-commodity model for about 50 primary and processed agricultural products, covering about 40 countries/country blocks grouped in 18 trading blocks. Bilateral trade flows and attached prices are modelled based on the Armington assumptions.
Farm typology and the farm layer are built in the supply module of CAPRI. The advantage of building-in a farm type layer in CAPRI is, among others, the participation of farm types in price formation through their integration with the market model. Since the market model and the farm type or regional supply models have been developed under one umbrella, the selection of data sources, methodologies and definition of products take into account all aggregation layers.
Building up the farm type layer includes three consequent steps:
definition of a regionalised farm typology based on Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) and Eurostat/Farm Structural Survey (FSS) data,
creation of a link between the typology data the FADN data and the statistical data used in CAPRI. To ensure a consistent model, it should be guaranteed that the aggregated farm types data perfectly fit into to production structure at regional and national levels, and
technical integration of the farm layer into the structure of CAPRI.
Gocth, A. Update of a Quantitative Tool for Farm Systems Level Analysis of Agricultural Policies (EU-FARMS). http://ftp.jrc.es/EURdoc/JRC53518.pdf
Gocth, A., Britz, W., Adenauer, M. Farm Level policy senario analysis.
Pavel Ciaian, Sergio Gomez y Paloma, Maria Espinosa